Friday, July 20, 2007

Trading Psychology: Mistakes in a Trading Environment

When it comes to trading, one of the most neglected subjects are those dealing with trading psychology. Being aware of all psychological factors that affect every trading decision will put the odds in your favor.

Most traders spend days, months and even years trying to find the right system. But having a system is just part of the game. Don’t get us wrong, it is very important to have a system that perfectly suits the trader, but it is as important as having a money management plan, or to understand all psychology barriers that may affect the trader decisions and other issues. In order to succeed in this business, there must be equilibrium between all important aspects of trading.

In the trading environment, when you lose a trade, what is the first idea that pops up in your mind? It would probably be, “There must be something wrong with my system”, or “I knew it, I shouldn’t have taken this trade” (even when your system signaled it). But sometimes we need to dig a little deeper in order to see the nature of our mistake, and then work on it accordingly.

When it comes to trading the Forex market as well as other markets, only 5% of traders achieve the ultimate goal: to be consistent in profits. What is interesting though is that there is just a tiny difference between this 5% of traders and the rest of them. The top 5% grow from mistakes; mistakes are a learning experience, they learn an invaluable lesson on every single mistake made. Deep in their minds, a mistake is one more chance to try it harder and do it better the next time, because they know they might not get a chance the next time. And at the end, this tiny difference becomes THE big difference.

Mistakes in the trading environment

Most of us relate a trading mistake to the outcome (in terms of money) of any given trade. The truth is, a mistake has nothing to do with it, mistakes are made when certain guidelines are not followed. When the rules you trade by are violated. Take for instance the following scenarios:

First scenario: The system signals a trade.
1. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: Its good to follow the system, if I do this consistently the odds will turn in my favor. Confidence is gained in both the trader and the system.
Mistake made: None.

2. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Negative, lost money.
Experience gained: It is impossible to win every single trade, a loosing trade is just part of the business; our raw material, we know we can’t get them all right. Even with this lost trade, the trader is proud about himself for following the system. Confidence in the trader is gained.
Mistake made: None.

3. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: Frustration, the trader always seems to get in trades that turned out to be loosing trades and let the profitable trades go away. Confidence is lost in the trader self.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when the system signaled it.

4. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: The trader will start to think “hey, I’m better than my system”. Even if the trader doesn't think on it consciously, the trader will rationalize on every signal given by the system because deep in his or her mind, his or her “feeling” is more intelligent than the system itself. From this point on, the trader will try to outguess the system. This mistake has catastrophic effects on our confidence to the system. The confidence on the trader turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when system signaled it

Second Scenario: System does not signal a trade.
1. No trade is taken
Outcome of the trade: Neutral
Experience gained: Good discipline, we only need to take trades when the odds are in our favor, just when the system signals it. Confidence gained in both the trader self and the system.
Mistake made: None

2. A trade is taken, turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: This mistake has the most catastrophic effects in the trader self, the system and most importantly in the trader’s trading career. You will start to think you need no system, you know better from them all. From this point on, you will start to trade based on what you think. Confidence in the system is totally lost. Confidence in the trader self turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system.

3. A trade is taken, turned out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: negative, lost money.
Experience gained: The trader will rethink his strategy. The next time, the trader will think it twice before getting in a trade when the system does not signal it. The trader will go “Ok, it is better to get in the market when my system signals it, only those trade have a higher probability of success”. Confidence is gained in the system.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system

As you can see, there is absolutely no correlation between the outcome of the trade and a mistake. The most catastrophic mistake even has a positive trade outcome, made money, but this could be the beginning of the end of the trader’s career. As we have already stated, mistakes must only be related to the violation of rules a trader trades by.

All these mistakes were directly related to the signals given by a system, but the same is applied when getting out of a trade. There are also mistakes related to following a trading plan. For example, risking more money on a given trade than the amount the trader should have risked and many more.

Most mistakes can be avoided by first having a trading plan. A trading plan includes the system: the criteria we use to get in and out the market, the money management plan: how much we will risk on any given trade, and many other points. Secondly, and most important, we need to have the discipline to follow strictly our plan. We created our plan when no trade was placed on, thus no psychology barriers were up front. So, the only thing we are certain about is that if we follow our plan, the decision taken is on our best interests, and in the long run, these decisions will help us have better results. We don’t have to worry about isolated events, or trades that could had give us better results at first, but then they could have catastrophic results in our trading career.


How to deal with mistakes

There are many possible ways to properly manage mistakes. We will suggest the one that works better for us.

Step one: Belief change.
Every mistake is a learning experience. They all have something valuable to offer. Try to counteract the natural tendency of feeling frustrated and approach mistakes in a positive manner. Instead of yelling to everyone around and feeling disappointed, say to yourself “ok, I did something wrong, what happened? What is it?

Step two: Identify the mistake made.
Define the mistake, find out what caused the mistake, and try as hard as you can to effectively see the nature of that mistake. Finding the mistake nature will prevent you from making the same mistake again. More than often you will find the answer where you less expected. Take for instance a trader that doesn’t follow the system. The reason behind this could be that the trader is afraid of loosing. But then, why is he or she afraid? It could be that the trader is using a system that does not fit him or her, and finds difficult to follow every signal. In this case, as you can see, the nature of the mistake is not in the surface. You need to try as hard as you can to find the real reason of the given mistake.

Step three: Measure the consequences of the mistake.
List the consequences of making that particular mistake, both good and bad. Good consequences are those that make us better traders after dealing with the mistake. Think on all possible reasons you can learn from what happened. For the same example above, what are the consequences of making that mistake? Well, if you don’t follow the system, you will gradually loose confidence in it, and this at the end will put you into trades you don’t really want to be, and out of trades you should be in.

Step four: Take action.
Taking proper action is the last and most important step. In order to learn, you need to change your behavior. Make sure that whatever you do, you become “this-mistake-proof”. By taking action we turn every single mistake into a small part of success in our trading career. Continuing with the same example, redefining the system would be the trader’s final step. The trader would put a system that perfectly fits him or her, so the trader doesn’t find any trouble following it in future signals.


Understanding the fact that the outcome of any trade has nothing to do with a mistake will open your mind to other possibilities, where you will be able to understand the nature of every mistake made. This at the same time will open the doors for your trading career as you work and take proper action on every mistake made.

The process of success is slow, and plenty of times it is attributed to repeated mistakes made and the constant struggle to get past these mistakes, working on them accordingly. How we deal with them will shape our future as a trader, and most importantly as a person.

Friday, July 13, 2007

Controlling Your Emotions

Looking out for number one

When taking part in any market one must be able to control ones emotions; simply put, you must act in your own best interest. There is no place for wishing and hoping in trading. You must be able to realize when you have entered into a losing trade and close it immediately upon recognition of the losing position. Failure to do so will only further damage your ability to make decisions based on technical data. The worst thing that can happen to a trader is to realize that he or she is in a losing trade and not close it only to find that it comes back and makes them money. This will build false expectations and, in essence, shifts responsibility to the market. Do not allow yourself to think, “maybe it will come back” because you will then have crossed from technical trading to wishing and hoping. If it does come back this will encourage further unnecessary risks. You must learn to enjoy taking losses and embrace them. Right now you are probably thinking, “what are you talking about?” Well let me say it could be worse, much worse. There is nothing like building your account on wishing and hopping only to realize that the market is not controlled by your wishes and prayers and it takes back everything you have made in one trade because you “thought” it would come back. Learn to act in your own best interest, if you are in a losing trade close it.

Closing out of losing trades is only one part of acting in your own best interest. What does it matter if you have learned to close losing trades but you are only taking 5 pips per winning trade? Once again it is not in your best interest to take 5 pips when you are risking 15+ pips per trade. I will compare it to a Bass tournament with a big fish prize that pays out 5 levels. Let’s assume that you have been entered as a candidate for the big fish prize. You don’t know how big your fish is in comparison to the others only that it has made it to the top five. In essence you have already won, you can’t lose. You may not get the jackpot but it is money in the bank. With that said would you ever withdraw from the contest? Of course not, that would not be in your best interest. Let’s assume you are in a trade and you are in profit. You, like the fisherman, have already won. So why would you ever forfeit the possibility of getting the Big Fish jackpot. To summarize, traders need to learn to act in their own best interest by cutting losses and letting profits run.

Visualizing Success

Confidence is extremely important when trading; you must be able to visualize yourself being successful. The saying “what we think about comes about” has more truth than you may realize. The power of the mind has been pondered for centuries and affects us in every aspect of our lives. I recently saw a special on television about studies conducted by Hitler during the holocaust. Hitler conducted studies on humans and the power of the mind. The Jews would be lined up to receive a number using a hot brand, they would have to wait in line and hear the screams and smell the burning flesh of there countrymen being branded. Occasionally they would use a very cold brand in place of the usually red hot brand and they found that the pain that was endured was equally agonizing and in some cases even left an unexplainable mark. This is a testimony to the power of the brain; it is a shame that these tactics were used; however, the results are quite amazing. With that said, you must take an active role in goal setting, otherwise, what are you visualizing? You must also visualize yourself making profitable trades. In your mind, break down the criteria in which you base your trading and visualize the market meeting that criteria. See the market bouncing off of your trend line which overlaps a Pivot point and visualize all the steps that you take to confirm each trade such as trend direction, currency volatility, etc. Then, most importantly, visualize the market accomplishing your target.

Losing

Be prepared to lose, it is part of trading. If you carry your losses into the next trade you will dwindle your account away. It goes back to visualizing success; if you carry that loss into the next trade you will subconsciously be visualizing a loss. You must take responsibility for your losses and realize that it’s not the broker’s fault or the market’s fault. The market holds no prejudices; it doesn’t care about your nationality, ethnicity, financial situation, it will take your money either way. The sooner you realize this the better off you will be. People who blame others for their shortcomings tend to revenge trade in order to get back at those who made them lose. However, they need realize it is their own fault, there is no one to get revenge on, and trading again will not accomplish revenge. Accepting responsibility for your losses will greatly cut down on revenge trading. The key to controlling losses is identifying them and immediately closing them. Don’t get married to a trade either. Realize the market has no boundaries and the direction you are trading may be wrong. When you close a loss you are protecting your previous profits and that is why you should embrace your profits as well as your losses. If you can learn to control your losses the wins will take care of themselves. To summarize, you can not carry your losses into the next trade as your subconscious is very powerful. What we think about comes about and if you are trading scared you will ultimately lose. We must envision winning!

Breaking Rules

You must have a set of rules or guideline when trading; however, just having rules is not good enough. You must follow the rules at all times. Many traders see the market jumping around due to some announcement and just enter because the market is moving. In doing this a trader disregards his or her own rules for trading. We must learn to wait for the trade to come to us. There is always another trade just around the corner. In order to follow a set of rules you must be completely aware of each rule in all situations including stops, limits, risk, etc. This will help you to be more mechanical and less emotional in your decision making. I want to reiterate the importance of not wishing and hoping. If you are hoping, then you are not completely prepared for the trade from a technical standpoint and you do not have a good hold on the existing situation. It would be in your best interest to close the trade, cut your losses and prepare yourself for the next opportunity. I would like to talk about one of the main reasons traders break their rules: Greed. Greed will keep an individual from taking profit at his predetermined level in hopes for more. It will also keep him from closing a trade at a loss at the predetermined stop level. Beyond this it will persuade an individual to take profit early which will keep the trader from capturing more potential profit. A trader must learn to plan his trade and trade his plan. If you plan to take profit at 30 pips than do it. If you think it’s going to continue for more profit only stay in if you would be willing to enter if you weren't already in it and make sure you move your stop to break even at a minimum. Another emotion that parallels greed is fear. Fear will keep you in a bad trade and force you out of a good trade. The majority of traders let their losses run and cut their profits short; you must do the opposite. In order to do this you must conquer you fears or you will sabotage your trading. To be a good trader you must conquer your emotions, build a strong self image, stick to a goal plan, embrace your mistakes, learn to relax, and control your anger to minimize revenge trading.